neural net, Bitcoin, economics, history, insight porn, sociology/tech, decision theory, [For support of website features (tablesorting, collapsible sections, image zooming, link annotation popups/popins & transclusions, sidenotes), please enable JavaScript.]. I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. I dont know what they can do to move faster but I suspect it has to do with placement (distribution) and with networks which both depend on (corrupt) entities.. What does this analogy suggest? Google: we are building the worlds 20th search engine at a time when most of the others have been abandoned as being commoditized money losers. BOYDEN: One way to think of it is that, if a scientific topic is really popular and everybodys doing it, then I dont need to be part of that. Is there a sustainable development reason to reduce our consumption? If the software doesnt work out, I guess well do something else. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things. 3). Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. However, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and a host of other bad things. and err again Rather, this is how the process of invention and creation works. "They say, timing is everything. This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. I remain confident of this: I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. No, and not even later, as demonstrated by Orkut and Friendster, and the lingering death of MySpace. We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding, Build something people want is not enough, The Psychology of Entrepreneurial Misjudgment, part 1: Biases16, Resistant protocols: How decentralization evolves, Technological convergence in drug discovery and other endeavors, Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology, How DFS, poker, basketball, Starcraft and strong opinions, weakly held (SOWH) can help your startup, An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron, How Bubbles and Megaprojects Parallelize Innovation, Market Research, Wireframing, and Design, Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem, Why didnt electricity immediately change manufacturing? Want to read all 2 pages? After all, why would they say no? Browning did not read it as we read it now. While it is possible to understand that, under extreme pressure, Fred was acting to save Federal Express from almost certain bankruptcy, and even to empathize with what he did, it nevertheless appeared to be a serious breach of conductDecember1975 was also the month that settled the matter of the forged loan guarantee documents for the Union Bank. She recently became Director of the Center for Energy, Environment, and Transportation Innovation in the Crisman Inst. Remember, you dont know anything else about the tech landscape in the 2000s, like that Google will go way up from its IPO, you dont know about Apples revival under Jobsall you know is that a social network will exist and will grow hugely. Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. At one time I considered writing a study of Kafkas precursors. A firm's ability to maintain an advantage in market value depends on whether investors perceive that the rate of cash flow growth will be sustained. There are many books out there on self-reflection, self-awareness, and introspection, but we recommend the books below as resources to help you start your journey. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. When minimum and maximum score are included in the same model, the coefficient on minimum score disappears. For many claims, there is no way to invest in an idea except by going all in and launching a company, resulting in extreme variance in outcomes, even when the idea is good and the forecasts correct about the (eventual) outcome. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. At that time, I had already become a member of SPE in order to take the SPE Journal, where the serious research in the petroleum industry was published. Ramadan is a time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and increased charity. Its just nobody was paying attention to that. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. In this case, the flowmeter acquires data while the well is flowing, which is what it is intended to do. In Schlumberger at that time, there were two alternative technologies competing with pressure-transient-test analysis using the derivative. Total page count over 20. A particularly germane example here is Krafft et al 2016/Krafft2017 (discussion), which examines a large dataset of trades made by eToro online traders, who are able to clone financial trading strategies of more successful traders; as traders find successful strategies, others gradually imitate them, and so the system as a whole converges on better strategies in what they identify as a sort of particle filter-like implementation of distributed Thompson sampling which they dub social sampling. Information and Communication Technology covering the topics of: The current state of ICT technologies (i.e., Web 2.0, 3.0, convergent technologies, social, mobile, and assistive media) Online systems, functions, and platforms. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. . You can see the smartphones come up again and again in TML, as the visionaries realize how transformative a mobile pocket-sized computer would be. Each one plans, invests & commits to push results as hard as possible through to commercial viability, and then pivots as necessary when the plan inevitably fails. For example, even if online pizza delivery has failed every time its tried, it still seems like a good idea that people will want to order pizza online via their smartphones, so one could try to do a pizza startup 2.5 years later, then 5 years later, then 10 years, then 20 years, or perhaps every time computer costs drop an order of magnitude, or perhaps every time the relevant market doubles in size? quick and timely) and also ecologically valid (i.e. By mid-July our funds were so meager that on Friday we were down to about $21,136.3$5,000.01973 in the checking account, while we needed $101,454.2$24,000.01973 for the jet fuel payment. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. And rental bikes., Instacart/Ocado/Uber Eats: Well do Kozmo.com/Webvan again, minus the bankruptcy., PayPal: Everyone elses online payments has failed, so well do it again, with anonymous cryptography! Imagine this: You wake up one day in a world without technology - all the computers on the planet just disappeared. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. If you were sure of that back then, or even mostly persuaded, and if a lot of others were as well, what good fortune you could have harvested. Without technology eradicated disease such as smallpox or the Spanish flu could have been still rampant since the 1800's. Getting a simple cold could be life threatening without technology. We should not stand alone in our industry, as Economides reminds us, but learn equally from others. Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. The energy business should ensure that the world has the affordable sustainable energy it needs without undue environmental impact. Yet both of these can be enablers for competitive advantage. Look after a pet. What would you do with it? Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. Do you have the capital to start a VC fund of your own, and throw multi-million-dollar investments at every social media until finally in 2010 you knew for sure that Facebook was the winning ticket and could cash out in the IPO? Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. Right then, I made an incredible blunder. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? The system as a whole can be seen in RL terms. Embed reflection into existing scheduled meetings. 2. Only Apple can build apps for it. Technology has existed for many years, maybe not the type of technology we have now because it managed to evolve throughout time. I have learned the basics of . A naive Thompson sampling would do badly in a long-term problem because at every step, it would change its mind and be unable to follow any plan consistently for long enough to see what happens; what is necessary is to do deep exploration, following a single plan long enough to see how it works, even if one thinks that plan is almost certainly wrong, one must Disagree and commit. Online safety, security, ethics, and etiquette. Its not enough to theorize about the possibility or prototype something in the lab if there is then no followup. All major success stories overshadow their long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but got unlucky. Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. So many models could be easily derived when the governing equations were transformed into Laplace space. I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. Ehlig-Economides, C.A., Mowat, G.R., and Corbett, C.: Techniques for Multibranch Well Trajectory Design in the Context of a Three-Dimensional Reservoir Model, paper SPE 35505 presented at the European 3D Reservoir Modeling Conference in Stavanger, 1617 April 1996. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. (All of which was doubtless why Page & Brin tried & failed to sell Google to AltaVista & Excite & Yahoo early on, and negotiated a possible sale with Yahoo as late as 2002 which they ultimately rejected.) (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. But this animal does not figure among the domestic animals, it is not easy to find, it does not lend itself to any classification. The greater part of a century had to elapse before the vacuum tube arrived on the scene. "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". This technological advancement is believed to be able to address the knowledge gap in neurophysiology and neurological disorder. Or take niche visionary technologies: if cryonics was correct in principal, yet turned out to be worthless for everyone doing it before 2030 (because the wrong perfusion techniques or cryopreservatives were used and some critical bit of biology was not vitrified) while practical post-2030 say, it would simply be yet another technology where visionaries were ultimately right despite all nay-saying and skepticism from normals but nevertheless wrong in a practical sense because they jumped on it too early, and so they wasted their money. Technological forecasts are often surprisingly prescient in terms of predicting that something was possible & desirable and what they predict eventually happens; but they are far less successful at predicting the timing, and almost always fail, with the success (and riches) going to another. Three-dimensional-seismic-data acquisition and interpretation and borehole images became widespread while I worked in integrated reservoir characterization. Freeman Dyson, Freeman Dysons Brain 1998 (cf. but less Its perfectly obvious. About a month later, I went to interview with Flopetrol Johnston in France and met Dominique Bourdet. So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? Yet, it took until the mid-00s for the promise of smartphones to materialize overnight, as it were, a success which went primarily to latecomers Apple and Google, cutting out the previously highly-successful Nokia, never mind visionaries like General Magic. List all technologies that you use every hour, and state your purpose of using this technology. (TML). Michael Wolfe offers some examples of this: How about Netflix? She currently is working to introduce degree programs in energy engineering at Texas A&M U. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. and there were huge projects that have never been shown to the public to try to make a consumable [VR product], very expensive ones. You would have needed no other prophecies, no other predictions, no other details. : Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. You cant imitate a successful entrepreneur, the time is past. and less The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. What has changed since then is, no doubt, some improvements in the mathematics, but largely, I think wed all agree, better compute power and a lot more data. You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. But equally, anything with that much potential has a high likelihood of failureif it was obviously a good idea with no risks, everyone would be doing it. " Timing your technology " means stop spending your ti me too much on technology but rather focus on some important things in your life . A place like Bell Labs benefits from remaining in contact with the needs of commerce, as it provides a check on lart pour lart pathologies, a fertile source of problems, and can feed back the benefits of mass production/experience curves. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. Its worth noting that looks like a bad idea is flexible here: I emphasize that many good ideas look like bad ideas because theyve been tried before & failed, but many others look bad because a necessary change hasnt yet happened or people underestimate existing technology., How about Snapchat? At his trial, Fred testified that as president of the Enterprise board and with supporting letters from his sisters, he had authority to commit the board. But it didnt., Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Hill2013; Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?., Finding out these tidbits is one reason I enjoyed reading Founders at Work: Stories of Startups Early Days (ed Livingston2009; Introduction), because the challenges are not always what you think they are. Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. Ehlig-Economides has published more than 50 papers, has authored two patents, and has lectured or consulted in more than 30 countries. I for one will admit it, when I wake up the first thing I do is reach for my smartphone. Three decades later, the book is highly dated, and the descriptions are of mostly historical interest for the development of various technologies (particularly in the 1990s). It is not always as easy a task as it sounds. Granted that an ICS can be developed, is now the right time to mount the effort? Technology is a subject that you will encounter in the school process starting from elementary till college. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. It was not much but it came at a critical time and kept us in business for another week. Reflection-in-action is a vital skill for coaches Starting a new pastime such as playing tennis, learning to paint, riding a horse, or listening to new types of music can provide a fun opportunity to reflect on what and how you are thinking and learning. In hindsight the things that worked look like good ideas and the ones that failed look stupid, but sadly its not that obvious at the time. Reindex into what, another doomed firm?). Self-reflection is the simple and altruistic art of looking inward into one's true persona. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. This is true but I would say it reverses the order (N to N+1? Virgin Atlantic: airlines are cool. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. A kind of definition of Value of Information: If you do not work on an important problem, its unlikely youll do important work. It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. How often did I read in the 90s and early 00s about how amazing Japanese cellphones were and how amazing a good smartphone would be, even though year after year the phones were jokes and used pretty much solely for voice? Smartphones are an even bigger example of this. Alfred North Whitehead, The Organization of Thought (1917). He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. Many startups have a long list of failed predecessors who tried to do much the same thing, often simultaneous with several other competitors (startups are just as susceptible to multiple discovery as science/technology in general3). A portion of the output pulse of the microchip laser was incident into the fiber delay line, and then, the backward reflection light induced the formation of the pulse. And will she walk through walls when the going gets toughwhich it inevitably will in nearly all startupsand simply refuse to even consider quitting? Bible verses about God's perfect timing. Learning can occur in many forms and situations. It may be relevant to note that Musk did not found Tesla; the two co-founders ultimately quit the company., As late as 20072008, Blockbuster could have still beaten Netflix, as its Total Access program demonstrated, but CEO changes scuppered its last chance. Cook calls this cracking the nut. Hrlein perceived a need for a set of mutually complementary institutions and trained personnel whose interaction produces the desired results. The most important development for well-test interpretation was still to come: the pressure derivative. These areas shared a number of generic problems and solutions, for example, the need to isolate a substance (natural product, synthetic product, body substance) in chemically pure form, the need to synthesize the substance and to do so economically if it was to go on the market, and the need for pharmacological, chemotherapeutic, toxicological, and clinical testing of the substance. They use their discretion to surface proposals that have at least one champion, regardless of whether there are any detractorsThe results show that there is greater ex ante uncertainty in the ARPA-E research portfolio compared to proposals with the highest mean scores (Model1). Timing and technology alone will not yield sustainable competitive advantage. The timeliness of your word is surely on point.". What other lessons could we draw if we thought about technology this way? This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Summary by one VC of a16z investment strategy. That is what makes a problem important. Why are success and failure so intertwined in the tech industry? Learn more with Olympus. Progress, then, depends on the unreasonable man. This was oft-cited as an example of how technoweenies failed to understand that people didnt really want videophones at allwho wants to put on makeup before making a call?, people offered as an explanation, in all seriousnessbut really, it looks like the videophones back then simply werent good enough. I think we see this a lot. Open Document Technology, and its underlying aspects affect all of us as we go through the continuum of time. Art. & quot ; time is an art. & quot ; the simple and altruistic art of looking inward one. 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