Indeed, associations between mask policy, adherence and other factors may be obscured in states with many high density and low density areas. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, notes that the graph for California, which required masks in indoor public settings beginning on December 15, is "strikingly similar" to the graph for Florida, which had no mask mandates. The black line on the graph shows the weekly rate of Covid cases in all the states with mask mandates that week, while the orange line shows the rate in all the states without mandates. The information in this article is current as of the date listed, which means newer information may be available when you read this. One state is the lone holdout. + Caption. Nationwide, according to theNew York Times database, the seven-day average of daily new cases rose sharply from mid-December to January 17 and has fallen just as sharply since then, which is consistent with the experience in other countries after omicron emerged. A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found a link between face mask mandates and a reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths, but at least one widely shared report wrongly interprets that data. Yes The Archdiocese also cited declining rates of Covid-19 transmission in its decision to relax masking rules. Theyre suffering from mask dependency, as this psychological affliction is termed in Japan, where a long tradition of mask-wearing during flu season has left some individuals afraid at any time to expose their faces in public. New Zealands prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, called it a validation of the countrys go hard, go early strategy, in which the country reacts rapidly to signs of community spread. A couple weeks into those lockdowns, countries with new restrictions may be seeing results: The rate of new daily cases has begun to level off or drop in France, Spain, Germany and Italy, though it continues to rise in the United Kingdom. Writing original draft, You cansubscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. 3.1.2023 9:30 AM, Damon Root "Not wearing a mask in large groups with unvaccinated people still poses a risk of COVID for unvaccinated groups. Instead, it links mask mandates to statistically significant decreases in county-level daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation.. Thats a huge swing, Werler says. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Eleanor J. Murray and Jennifer Weuve and the Boston University School of Public Health Epidemiology COVID-19 Response Corps for bringing together students and faculty for this project. By the time the mandates were introduced in New York and other states in the spring of 2020 (at the left side of the graph), infections had already been declining in those states, and the mandates didnt prevent a surge later that year, when cases rose and fell in nearly identical trajectories regardless of states mask policies. We combined the Recommended and Strict groups into Any policy. The study concluded that mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level Covid-19 spread during Covid-19 growth surges. The medias narrative about masks extended throughout the world. But despite an official infection rate that was virtually the same as California's, he adds, "Florida had 33% more deaths per capita than California" during the omicron surge. Some states now have ended their statewide masks mandates, but the president, and others, have urged them to reinstate masks mandates because of the recent upsurge that our nation has seen in COVID-19 cases. Both mask policy and mask adherence for states and D.C. were cross-tabulated with high case rates in the subsequent month. The black line on the graph shows the weekly rate of Covid cases in all the states with mask mandates that week, while the orange line shows the rate in all the states without mandates. All reviews and studies included in this document report on data collected in a time period prior Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. We calculated the average mask use percentage by month for AprilSeptember, 2020. Using an index that tracks policy responses to the pandemic, these charts show the number of new virus cases and hospitalizations in each state relative to the states recent containment measures. A relationship between policies and the outbreaks severity has become more clear as the pandemic has progressed. Most states imposed tight restrictions in the spring even if they did not have bad outbreaks then. Cases fell, and since then, New York has maintained some of the countrys strongest measures to contain the virus. February 28, 2023. However, Werler says her team did find substantial amounts of variation that could suggest other factors beyond mandatessuch as political affiliationcould be at play. Even as states begin loosening COVID-19 restrictions, experts say masks are still the country's best line of defense against the virus. Another consideration is that access to COVID-19 testing appears to vary from state to state [21]. Covering up may give the maskaholics a false sense of securitybut they could breathe more easily if theyd just face the facts. Over the course of the pandemic, both Iowa and Florida have done better than the national average in measures of Covid mortality as well as overall excess mortality (the number of deaths more than normal from all causes). One America News Network on March 7 published an article under the headline CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers. The post claims the CDC has admitted face masks do little to prevent the spread of COVID-19 amid mounting pressure to lift mask mandates across the U.S., Butthe CDCs study doesnt say that. Instead of carefully analyzing the effects of masks, the CDC repeatedly tried to justify them by misrepresenting short-term trends and hyping badly flawed research, like studies in Arizona and Kansas purporting to show that infections had been dramatically reduced by the mask mandates imposed in some counties. R-0 may be the most important scientific term youve never heard of when it comes to stopping the coronavirus pandemic. When the outbreak slammed the New York City area in March and April, leaders locked down. In Maryland , Gov. When we looked at states with 75% mask adherence (Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont), we found none had experienced a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. If you've seen pictures of those kids, you know they are not necessarily using masks as intended. "Its that simple.. Doug Burgum reopened the state nearly fully in May. Heres How Doctors With Kids Are Navigating the New Mask Guidance. No, Is the Subject Area "Pandemics" applicable to this article? Its been largely delegated to a subnational level, to the states, for example, and municipalities to figure it out themselves.. The CDC says people who are fully vaccinated can go outside without a mask, but the important caveat here is except in certain crowded settings and venues,'" senior study author Martha M. Werler, DSc, professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health, tells Verywell. The same study found that cloth masks did not have a statistically significant effect. Thus, adherence to mask wearing in public remains a challenge for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. PLoS ONE 16(4): "The probability of becoming a rapid riser county was 43% lower among counties that had statewide mask mandates at reopening," the researchers reported. High school students in Seattle staged a protest demanding that a mask mandate be reinstated, and psychologists now deal with the anxieties of children who dont want their classmates to see their faces. Monthly COVID-19 case rates (number of cases per capita over two weeks) >200 per 100,000 residents were considered high. Note: Measurements of government response come from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Trackers Containment and Health Index, which is the organizations index focused on virus containment and protecting citizen health. As indicated on the graph, surveys during the pandemic showed that fewer than 10 percent of Swedes bothered to wear masks. Yes Theyre not looking at masks in and of themselves," Josh Petrie, research professor in the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, told USA TODAY. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. If Florida's case numbers understate the true number of infections more than California's do, that could partially explain the difference in COVID-19 deaths per capita. The current study . Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Mean COVID-19 rates for states with at least 75% mask adherence in the preceding month was 109.26 per 100,000 compared to 249.99 per 100,000 for those with less adherence. Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Uruguay, Chile, Poland, and Hungary were all hailed as models of scientific enlightenment for their low infection rates and strict mask policiesuntil, as usual, the masks suddenly lost their magical power. Methodology, The weaker associations for mask policy may reflect the lack of a unified policy across all states and D.C. and the inconsistent messaging by the media and government leaders. For mask policy and adherence in September in relation to high COVID-19 rates in October, collinearity caused the odds ratio to flip. Outbreaks are comparatively smaller in states where efforts to contain the virus were stronger over the summer and fall potential good news for leaders taking action now. We observed some benefit of mask policy on COVID-19 rates, but the findings were unstable. We categorized the existence of a mask policy as None if there was no requirement for face coverings in public spaces, Recommended if required in all public spaces without consequences, and Strict if required in all public spaces with consequences in the form of fine(s) or citation(s). How Are States Responding to CDC Mask Guidelines? I just dont know based on reading the OAN summary how they came to the same conclusions because the CDC conclusions were favorable.. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus transmission. That's not nothing, but it's a pretty modest effect, and it was achieved with surgical masks worn by adults in conditions that encouraged proper and consistent use. Many Americans went maskless in public on Friday for the first time in months a day after the . Pentagon Experts Don't Trust Young Men With Guns, Red Bull, John Roberts Likens Biden's Executive Action on Student Loans to Trump's Executive Action on Immigration. California's state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic is finally over, ending on Tuesday after nearly three years in place. Randomized clinical trials involving flu viruses had shown, contrary to popular wisdom in Japan and other Asian countries, that there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission, as the WHO summarized the scientific literature. Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. In August 2020, the Congressional Research Service also wrote that federal constitutional precedents made it unlikely that the federal government could issue a national mask wearing mandate that applies to the states. Nedghie Adrien, Roles While it controlled for other policies that have been used to try to mitigate new infections from the coronavirus including bar closures, stay-at-home orders and bans on gatherings of 10 or more people it did not account for some others, such as physical distancing recommendations and other types of business closures. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. One of the biggest problems in the United States so far has been the lack of a coherent, cohesive national response, said Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiologist at Columbia University. Since the spring, Maine mandated masks and had strict travel restrictions for out-of-state visitors; South Dakota, meanwhile, has never had a mask mandate and welcomed nearly half a million people to the Sturgis motorcycle rally, as well as its state fair, which attracted more than 100,000 visitors. When the state faced a surge of cases over the summer, the governor closed bars and placed limits on restaurant capacity. Because high COVID rates were reported by only eight states in May and four states in June, we did not examine mask adherence or policy in the preceding April or May. Writing original draft. Because after all, maskswhen worn correctlyare effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. Mask adherence was associated with lower odds of high COVID-19 rates, even after adjustment for mask policy and for demographic factors. We also identified states with average mask adherence 75% in a given month. We classified a state and D.C. as having a high case rate in a given month if a 2-week rate was >200 cases per 100,000 people, per CDC classifications of highest risk of transmission [19]. This protective effect of mask wearing was evident across four months of the pandemic, even after adjusting the associations for mask policy, distance policy, and demographic factors. Many local leaders went further. We thank Dr. Julia Raifman Boston University School of Public Health for developing, maintaining, and providing open access to the COVID-19 US State Policy Database. Indeed, issuing such a policy is not the same as successfully implementing it. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, Editor: Wen-Jun Tu, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, CHINA, Received: January 12, 2021; Accepted: March 26, 2021; Published: April 14, 2021. "Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates. Costs vs. benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns and mask mandates revealed in new research Thu, 01/12/2023 LAWRENCE Beginning in 2020, most state governors ordered lockdowns and mask mandates to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The adoption of universal masking policies is increasingly polarized and politicized, demanding that public health authorities balance the values of health and individual liberty. Thus, subsequent comparisons of states with high COVID-19 rates by month focused on July, August, September and October. | Sources: Note: The position for a state on a given date reflects the 7-day average of cases on that date and the containment index value from two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes. | That second observation requires a caveat, since testing rates affect the number of cases that are recorded. 2 minute read. The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting that mask mandates were linked to statistically significant decreases in COVID-19 case within 20 days of implementation. Little attention was paid to more rigorous research, like a review of the literature that found little or no benefit from masks, or a study that compared infection rates with mask policies and with rates of mask use in all 50 states over the first year of the pandemic. Wearing a mask may still give some people a sense of security, but they could breathe more easily if theyd face the facts. John Bel Edwards emergency order will . We show that mask mandates are associated with a statistically significant decrease in new cases (-3.55 per 100K), deaths (-0.13 per 100K), and the proportion of hospital admissions (-2.38 percentage points) up to 40 days after the introduction of mask mandates both at the state and county level. Start the day smarter Notable deaths in 2023 The world's largest war . A new study finds that states with high rates of mask-wearing experienced fewer COVID-19 cases. Conceptualization, For a while, the residents were spared. Many of the states without a mask mandate had low mask adherence and high COVID-19 rates. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. Variants of COVID-19 Are Spreading Across the U.S. How to Plan a COVID-Safe Summer Vacation in 2022. Laboratory studies indicate that masks, especially N95 respirators, can help reduce virus transmission. After the pandemic, a survey of gains and losses. Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. I think timing really matters for the decisions.. Investigation, Their cumulative rates of Covid mortality were virtually identical, too (in fact, there were slightly more deaths per capita in the states with mask mandates). By clicking Accept All Cookies, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. The graph tracks the results of a natural experiment that occurred nationwide during the pandemic. Eight states were reported to have at least 75% mask adherence in any month between June and September (AZ, CT, HI, MA, NY, RI, VT, VA); none reported a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement. If this is true, we would expect associations between mask adherence and high COVID-19 rates to be even stronger. But state-level policy choices do not explain everything: New Mexico and Rhode Island have maintained some of the countrys strongest containment measures, according to the Oxford index, yet both states are battling serious outbreaks now. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t002. Visualization, For all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC), these data were abstracted by month for April September 2020 to measure their impact on COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month (May October 2020). While the downtrend could also have been a result of other countermeasures like social distancing, Kansas' findings mirror observations from other states and countries. Rhode Island. Only eight states reported that 75% or more people wore masks between June and September, leading to fewer COVID cases: States with a 75% minimum mask adherence reported about 109.26 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents compared to the average of 249.99 per 100,000 residents in states with low mask adherence. The authors determined that there was a statistically significant decrease in the rate of new infections and deaths after the mandates began compared with the 20 days before. Prior to adopting mask mandates, those municipalities that eventually adopted mandates had higher transmission rates than the rest of the state, with the mean case rate difference per 100,000 people increasing by 0.32 cases per day (slope of difference = 0.32; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.51). It compares Germany with Sweden, the medias Covid villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks. "Large indoor gatherings without masking among a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons is a recipe for trouble.". When Can I Visit a Friend's House After I'm Fully Vaccinated? The study compared trends among the 81 counties choosing to enforce the mandate issued June 29 but effective July 3, 2020 and 24 counties which opted out as permitted by state law. The pandemic has eased, but not the compulsion of many Americans to cover their faces. Based on CDC at-risk guidelines for COVID-19 [20], we considered non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, age, and population density as potential confounders. Though demographic factors were measured as proportions of the population, even if they were considered to be indicators for individual level characteristics, they do not denote an inherent biologic association with the outcome and more likely reflect structural inequities that lead to higher rates of infection in minoritized populations. | A recent study shows that states with high levels of mask-wearing reported fewer COVID-19 cases last summer. For mask adherence, the cut-off values for the low and high quartiles were 31% and 46% in June, 53% and 72% in July, 55% and 71% in August, and 55% and 68% in September. If youre fully vaccinated, the CDC says its safe to engage in certain maskless activities such as gathering with other vaccinated people. Our study was also limited by the lack of information on accessibility of COVID-19 testing; if less accessible testing is associated with less mask adherence, the associations we report here may be under-estimates. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.s001. Policy data on physical distancing were dichotomized as any versus no stay-at-home order during the April 1 to October 31, 2020 interval. When Youve Been Fully Vaccinated. Yes While mandates required shoppers to don masks before entering supermarkets, for example, the risk of transmission in such settings is low, given the amount of time customers usually spend in them, the size of the air space, and typically wide distances between patrons. Of the 15 states with no mask policy from April through September, 14 reported high COVID-19 rates in at least one month from May to October. States with stronger policy responses over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks. 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